2 Cognitive Biases
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2.1 Daniel Kahneman
📖 Kahneman is a Nobel laureate psychologist known for his work on cognitive biases and behavioral economics. He has shown that people are often irrational and make decisions that are not in their best interests.
“People are more likely to believe information that confirms their existing beliefs, even if that information is false.”
— Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
This cognitive bias is known as confirmation bias. It can lead people to make decisions that are not in their best interests, such as continuing to invest in a stock that is losing value because they believe it will eventually go up. Fortunately, we can overcome this bias by actively seeking out information that contradicts our beliefs. This will help us to make more informed decisions.
“People are more likely to take risks when they are feeling optimistic, even if the risks are not justified.”
— Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
This cognitive bias is known as the optimism bias. It can lead people to make decisions that are not in their best interests, such as taking on too much debt or investing in risky ventures. Fortunately, we can overcome this bias by being aware of it and by considering the risks involved in our decisions.
“People are more likely to value things that they own, even if those things are not worth very much.”
— Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
This cognitive bias is known as the endowment effect. It can lead people to make decisions that are not in their best interests, such as selling a stock for less than they paid for it because they have become attached to it. Fortunately, we can overcome this bias by being aware of it and by considering the true value of our possessions.
2.2 Amos Tversky
📖 Tversky was a psychologist who collaborated with Kahneman on many of his most important research. He is known for his work on prospect theory, which describes how people make decisions under uncertainty.
“People tend to be more risk-averse when they are making gains than when they are making losses.”
— Amos Tversky, Econometrica
This is known as the reflection effect. It is one of the many cognitive biases that can lead people to make poor decisions.
“People tend to overestimate the likelihood of events that are vivid and easy to imagine.”
— Amos Tversky, Cognitive Psychology
This is known as the availability heuristic. It can lead people to make decisions that are not based on rational analysis.
“People tend to be overconfident in their own abilities.”
— Amos Tversky, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
This is known as the overconfidence effect. It can lead people to make decisions that are not based on a realistic assessment of their own abilities.
2.3 Richard Thaler
📖 Thaler is a Nobel laureate economist who is known for his work on behavioral economics. He has shown that people are often irrational and make decisions that are not in their best interests.
“We are not inherently rational, and the way we make decisions is affected by a variety of cognitive biases.”
— Richard Thaler, Unknown
Thaler’s book, Misbehaving, discusses the many ways in which we make irrational decisions. These decisions can be influenced by our emotions, our social environment, and the way information is presented to us.
“Loss aversion is a powerful force that can lead us to make poor decisions.”
— Richard Thaler, Unknown
Loss aversion is the tendency to feel the pain of a loss more strongly than the pleasure of an equivalent gain. This can lead us to make poor decisions, such as holding on to losing investments for too long or selling winning investments too soon.
“Default options can have a significant impact on people’s choices.”
— Richard Thaler, Unknown
A default option is a choice that is preselected for people. If people do not actively choose a different option, they will be automatically enrolled in the default option. This can have a significant impact on people’s choices, as they may not be aware of the other options available to them or they may not want to make the effort to change the default option.
2.4 Gerd Gigerenzer
📖 Gigerenzer is a psychologist who is known for his work on bounded rationality. He has shown that people are often able to make good decisions even when they have limited information and time.
“Less is more: People make better decisions with less, not more, information.”
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Psychological Review
When making decisions, people are often overwhelmed by too much information. This can lead to decision paralysis and poor choices. However, research has shown that people can make better decisions when they have less information to consider. This is because less information reduces cognitive load and allows people to focus on the most important factors.
“Fast and frugal heuristics are often better than complex algorithms.”
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Psychological Review
When making decisions, people often use simple heuristics, or rules of thumb, to simplify the decision-making process. These heuristics are often fast and frugal, meaning that they require little time and effort to use. However, research has shown that these heuristics can often lead to better decisions than complex algorithms.
“Intuition is a powerful tool for making decisions.”
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Psychological Science
Intuition is often dismissed as unscientific and unreliable. However, research has shown that intuition can be a powerful tool for making decisions. Intuition is a form of unconscious processing that allows people to make decisions quickly and efficiently. It can be especially useful in situations where there is limited information or time to make a decision.
2.5 Daniel Ariely
📖 Ariely is a behavioral economist who is known for his work on irrationality. He has shown that people are often willing to pay more for things that are framed in a certain way.
“People are more likely to buy a product if it is framed as a gain rather than a loss.”
— Daniel Ariely, Predictably Irrational
This is because people are more motivated to avoid losses than to gain gains.
“People are more likely to donate to a charity if they are asked to donate a specific amount of money rather than an open-ended amount.”
— Daniel Ariely, The Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
This is because people are more likely to conform to a specific request than to make a decision on their own.
“People are more likely to believe a statement if it is made by an authority figure.”
— Daniel Ariely, The Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
This is because people are more likely to trust an authority figure than someone who is not an expert.
2.6 Jonathan Haidt
📖 Haidt is a psychologist who is known for his work on moral psychology. He has shown that people have different moral intuitions and that these intuitions can be shaped by culture and experience.
“People tend to rely on their intuitions and emotions when making moral judgments, rather than on reason and logic.”
— Jonathan Haidt, Psychological Science
This is because our intuitions and emotions are fast and automatic, while reason and logic are slow and effortful. As a result, we are more likely to make moral judgments based on our gut feelings than on careful deliberation.
“The way we frame a moral issue can influence our moral judgment.”
— Jonathan Haidt, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
For example, if we frame an issue in terms of harm, we are more likely to judge it as wrong. If we frame it in terms of fairness, we are more likely to judge it as unfair. This is because our moral intuitions are sensitive to the way an issue is framed.
“Culture can shape our moral intuitions.”
— Jonathan Haidt, Nature
This is because culture provides us with a set of shared values and beliefs that influence the way we think about the world. As a result, people from different cultures can have different moral intuitions.
2.7 Steven Sloman
📖 Sloman is a psychologist who is known for his work on decision-making. He has shown that people often make decisions based on their emotions and that these decisions are not always rational.
“Identify threats and opportunities”
— Steven Sloman, TODO
People are more likely to make decisions based on threats than on opportunities. This is because threats are more salient and easier to identify than opportunities.
“Avoid the planning fallacy”
— Steven Sloman, TODO
The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate the time it will take to complete a task. This is because people tend to be optimistic about their ability to complete tasks and do not take into account unexpected delays.
“Be aware of framing effects”
— Steven Sloman, TODO
The way that a decision is framed can influence the outcome. For example, people are more likely to choose a risky option if it is framed in terms of potential gains than if it is framed in terms of potential losses.
2.8 Philip Tetlock
📖 Tetlock is a political scientist who is known for his work on forecasting. He has shown that experts are often not very good at predicting the future.
“We are often overconfident in our beliefs. We tend to think that we know more than we actually do.”
— Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
This is one of the most important lessons that we can learn from Tetlock’s research. When we are overconfident in our beliefs, we are more likely to make mistakes.
“We tend to seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs, and to avoid information that contradicts them.”
— Philip Tetlock, The Psychology of Forecasting
This is known as confirmation bias. When we have a strong belief about something, we are more likely to seek out information that supports that belief, and to ignore information that contradicts it.
“Our emotions can cloud our judgment. When we are feeling strong emotions, we are more likely to make impulsive decisions that we may later regret.”
— Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
This is known as emotional reasoning. When we are feeling strong emotions, we are more likely to make decisions based on those emotions, rather than on logic and reason.
2.9 Cass Sunstein
📖 Sunstein is a legal scholar who is known for his work on behavioral law and economics. He has shown that people are often irrational and that this can have implications for law and policy.
“People are often biased towards information that confirms their existing beliefs.”
— Cass Sunstein, The Journal of Legal Studies
This is known as confirmation bias, and it can lead people to make bad decisions. For example, if someone believes that a particular stock is going to go up in value, they are more likely to seek out information that supports this belief and ignore information that contradicts it.
“People are often overconfident in their own abilities.”
— Cass Sunstein, The Quarterly Journal of Economics
This is known as the overconfidence effect, and it can lead people to take risks that they should not. For example, someone who is overconfident in their driving abilities may be more likely to speed or drive recklessly.
“People are often influenced by the opinions of others.”
— Cass Sunstein, The American Economic Review
This is known as social proof, and it can lead people to conform to the behavior of others, even if they do not agree with it. For example, someone who is in a group of people who are all laughing may be more likely to laugh themselves, even if they do not find the joke funny.
2.10 Thérèse Amabile
📖 Amabile is a psychologist who is known for her work on creativity. She has shown that creativity is not just about having a good idea, but also about being able to execute it.
“Creativity is not just about having a good idea, but also about being able to execute it.”
— Thérèse Amabile, Harvard Business Review
Amabile’s research has shown that creativity is not just about having a good idea, but also about being able to execute it. She has found that the most creative people are those who are able to persist in the face of setbacks and who are willing to take risks.
“Creating something is not just an individual activity. Collaboration and teamwork are important parts of the creative process.”
— Thérèse Amabile, The Progress Principle
Amabile’s research has shown that collaboration and teamwork are important parts of the creative process. She has found that the most creative teams are those that are able to share ideas freely and that are willing to take risks.
“Feedback is essential for creativity. It provides you with information about how your work is being received and helps you to improve it.”
— Thérèse Amabile, Harvard Business Review
Amabile’s research has shown that feedback is essential for creativity. She has found that the most creative people are those who are able to receive feedback and use it to improve their work.